Algorithm rates Three Lions sixth in the field on 3.6% to win the tournament, predicted path ending against Morocco
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, June 2, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — England’s 2026 World Cup is forecast to end at the quarter-final stage with defeat to Morocco, according to a new prediction model that ran 10,000 simulations of the entire 48-team tournament.
The Betminer forecast, available at worldcup.betminer.co.uk, has England topping Group L ahead of Croatia, beating South Korea in the Round of 32, and beating Tunisia in the Round of 16. The model then has Morocco ending England’s tournament at the quarter-final stage.
Across the 10,000 simulations, England were rated as the sixth-most-likely tournament winners on 3.6%. The model places them behind Spain (12.9%), France (10.1%), Argentina (8.4%), Morocco (5.0%) and Japan (4.9%).
The forecast was produced by Exquisite Media using a hybrid Elo and proprietary signal model. David Shaw, who built the system, said the England number was lower than the bookmaker prices imply but consistent with the underlying signals. “England are sixth in the model on 3.6%. The current outright prices have them around 15/2, which implies an 11.8% chance of winning the tournament. That is more than three times what the maths supports. The market is pricing England on sentiment; the model is pricing them on form, defensive structure, and bracket.”
Morocco’s role as the team that ends England’s tournament is one of the more notable findings in the wider forecast. The model rates Morocco fourth overall on 5.0%, well ahead of historically larger footballing nations including Brazil (1.8%), Portugal (1.8%) and Germany (2.5%).
Shaw said the Morocco rating was driven by current form and squad continuity rather than any model bias. “Morocco’s 2022 run to the semi-finals was treated as a one-off by the markets. The pricing across this tournament suggests that view still holds. The model does not see it that way. Squad continuity, defensive structure, and the draw they have landed in all point to a deep run being well within reach.”
The full forecast, including the predicted route through the tournament for every nation and the win probabilities for all 48 teams, is available at worldcup.betminer.co.uk.
About Betminer
Betminer is a football prediction and analytics service that combines international Elo ratings with a proprietary signal layer derived from years of in-season prediction work. The 2026 World Cup forecast at worldcup.betminer.co.uk is the first tournament-scale application of the Betminer Algorithm. The full methodology, including the hybrid model design and the calibration approach, is available on the project’s methodology page.
About the model
The 2026 World Cup forecast was produced by running 10,000 complete tournament simulations through a hybrid Elo + Betminer signal model. Every match in every round, including extra time and penalties where applicable, was sampled from a probability distribution rather than picked deterministically. The results aggregated across all 10,000 simulations provide a probability for every team’s path through the tournament.
The project was produced in partnership with BetClever and Football Park.
David Shaw
Exquisite Media Ltd
david.shaw@weareexquisite.co.uk
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